Event Title

Climate Change: The Future of A Crisis

Location

Dining Room, Carnegie Institution for Science

Event Website

http://ipsonet.org/web/page/512/sectionid/375/pagelevel/2/interior.asp

Start Date

4-12-2023 2:00 PM

End Date

4-12-2023 3:00 PM

Description

Chair: David Merchant, Policy Studies Organization

So Young Kim
Behind the Consensus: An Anatomy of Global Public Opinion on Climate Change Policies.
Abstract: Climate change has undoubtedly become a topmost concern of policymakers around the world. As revealed in numerous polls and media reports, public awareness of the climate change problem seems to be never higher than now. This paper explores the contour of current global public opinion on climate change issues, based on the three ways climate change is framed and portrayed to the global public–climate change as a risk issue, as an environmental issue, and as a development issue. Key findings include: (i) public information and knowledge about climate change as a scientifically/technologically complex issue strongly correlates with the aggregate level of education across countries, (ii) climate change as a large-scale, global environmental problem relatively removed from everyday experience tends to receive greater attention by citizens of advanced countries, and (iii) public support for climate change policies which are closely tied with the prospects of economic growth is significantly higher in more developed countries. These findings suggest that despite the apparently emerging consensus on climate change as the defining challenge facing our age, the global public remains largely divided in the level of public understanding of the issue and public support for climate change policies.

J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting Climate Change: Application of Evidence-Based Forecasting Principles.
Abstract: We summarize evidence showing that the global warming alarm movement has more of the character of a political movement than that of a scientific controversy. We then make forecasts of the effects and outcomes of this movement using structured analysis of analogous situations, a method that has been shown to produce accurate forecasts for conflict situations. This paper summarizes the current status of this “structured analogies project.”
We searched the literature and asked diverse experts to identify phenomena that could be characterized as alarms warning of future disasters that were endorsed by scientists, politicians, and the media, and that were accompanied by calls for strong action. The search yielded 71 possible analogies. We examined objective accounts and screened the list; this yielded 26 analogies that met all of the criteria. We coded each of the 26 analogies accounting for the forecasting procedures used, the accuracy of the forecasts, the types of actions called for, and the effects of actions implemented. This paper provides preliminary findings.
The analogous alarms were presented as “scientific,” but none were based on scientific forecasting procedures. Every alarming forecast proved to be false; the predicted adverse effects either did not occur or were minor. Costly government policies remained in place long after the predicted disasters failed to materialize. In no case could it be said that the actions taken prevented ill effects.
The findings appear to be insensitive to which analogies are included. The structured analogies approach suggests that the current global warming alarm is simply the latest example of a common social phenomenon: an alarm based on unscientific forecasts of a calamity. The global warming alarm will fade, but not before much additional harm is done by governments and individuals making inferior decisions on the basis of unscientific forecasts.

Import Event to Google Calendar

 
Dec 4th, 2:00 PM Dec 4th, 3:00 PM

Climate Change: The Future of A Crisis

Dining Room, Carnegie Institution for Science

Chair: David Merchant, Policy Studies Organization

So Young Kim
Behind the Consensus: An Anatomy of Global Public Opinion on Climate Change Policies.
Abstract: Climate change has undoubtedly become a topmost concern of policymakers around the world. As revealed in numerous polls and media reports, public awareness of the climate change problem seems to be never higher than now. This paper explores the contour of current global public opinion on climate change issues, based on the three ways climate change is framed and portrayed to the global public–climate change as a risk issue, as an environmental issue, and as a development issue. Key findings include: (i) public information and knowledge about climate change as a scientifically/technologically complex issue strongly correlates with the aggregate level of education across countries, (ii) climate change as a large-scale, global environmental problem relatively removed from everyday experience tends to receive greater attention by citizens of advanced countries, and (iii) public support for climate change policies which are closely tied with the prospects of economic growth is significantly higher in more developed countries. These findings suggest that despite the apparently emerging consensus on climate change as the defining challenge facing our age, the global public remains largely divided in the level of public understanding of the issue and public support for climate change policies.

J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting Climate Change: Application of Evidence-Based Forecasting Principles.
Abstract: We summarize evidence showing that the global warming alarm movement has more of the character of a political movement than that of a scientific controversy. We then make forecasts of the effects and outcomes of this movement using structured analysis of analogous situations, a method that has been shown to produce accurate forecasts for conflict situations. This paper summarizes the current status of this “structured analogies project.”
We searched the literature and asked diverse experts to identify phenomena that could be characterized as alarms warning of future disasters that were endorsed by scientists, politicians, and the media, and that were accompanied by calls for strong action. The search yielded 71 possible analogies. We examined objective accounts and screened the list; this yielded 26 analogies that met all of the criteria. We coded each of the 26 analogies accounting for the forecasting procedures used, the accuracy of the forecasts, the types of actions called for, and the effects of actions implemented. This paper provides preliminary findings.
The analogous alarms were presented as “scientific,” but none were based on scientific forecasting procedures. Every alarming forecast proved to be false; the predicted adverse effects either did not occur or were minor. Costly government policies remained in place long after the predicted disasters failed to materialize. In no case could it be said that the actions taken prevented ill effects.
The findings appear to be insensitive to which analogies are included. The structured analogies approach suggests that the current global warming alarm is simply the latest example of a common social phenomenon: an alarm based on unscientific forecasts of a calamity. The global warming alarm will fade, but not before much additional harm is done by governments and individuals making inferior decisions on the basis of unscientific forecasts.

http://www.psocommons.org/dupont_summit/2009/schedule/13