Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy

Classifying Wildfire Risk at the Building Scale in the Wildland-Urban Interface: Applying Spatial Video Approaches to Los Angeles County

Brice Burkett et al. — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:30:46 PST

Continued development in the wildland-urban interface presents several challenges with regards annual wildfire risk. One of those challenges is how to mitigate against this hazard. This paper will present a method for fine scale data collection that can be used to inform mitigation efforts by identifying spatial patterns of within neighborhood wildfire vulnerability. These visual data are used to develop fire risk classification maps for seven communities in three cities of Los Angeles County. Each of these test locations has been selected in collaboration with the Los Angeles County Fire Department due to the combination of a previous burn history, but no wildfire in the past 20 years. A spatial video system is used to capture aspects of the home which are traditionally thought to increase risk within the ignition zone. The resulting maps not only illustrate risk in association with proximity to vegetation at the border of communities, but also how variation in home vulnerability results in some interior properties being at-risk to firebrands. The paper describes how spatial video data can be used to enhance current wildfire simulation efforts, especially evacuation scenarios, while an accompanying geonarrative by ride-along community stakeholders could provide place specific insight on behavior.

How Does Disaster Relief Works Affect the Trust in Local Government? A Study of the Wenchuan Earthquake

Ziqiang Han et al. — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:30:42 PST

Political trust can lead to cooperation and is very important in emergency and disaster management. However, the impact of disaster events on political trust is complicated. On May 12, 2008, a disruptive earthquake hit Southwest China, killing thousands of people and causing billions in economic losses. The Chinese national government’s swift response was praised by the public, but the local government trust was not well documented. Through fieldwork in one of the most damaged counties, how disaster relief work affected the trust in local government was analyzed.

Political trust varies in different levels of government in China. People trust the central government more than the local government. After the earthquake, there was a polarization trend in the local political trust. The few cases of role abandonment had a very bad effect on local political trust. The pre-disaster distrust, the impolite manners of local officials, and the gap between public expectations and the local government capacity in disaster relief impaired trust in local government. An easily operated and widely covered disaster assistance model is good to improve political trust after extreme tragedies. How to implement policies effectively and equally at the local level and the intergovernmental interchanges are the challenges for all levels of government, and will impact the public’s trust in government.

Who Needs What? A Case Study of Post-disaster Damage and Needs Assessment (DANA) in Vietnam

Erin Hughey et al. — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:30:40 PST

Disaster damages and losses cannot be wholly eliminated, and it is essential that communities develop strategies to effectively respond when disaster strikes. Accurate accounting of damage and needs following a disaster can help responders to match existing needs with available resources and assets. The goal of this study was to determine the accuracy and completeness of existing damage and needs assessment (DANA) procedures in Vietnam. Evaluations were made based on a review of available DANA records at the central and provincial government levels, as well as on information collected through semi-structured interviews with provincial representatives. Provincial level data were collected in five study provinces: Danang, Quang Binh, Quang Nam, Quang Tri, and Thua Thien-Hue. Results indicate inconsistent DANA templates, procedures, and application. Recommendations include 1) development of a consistent DANA policy; 2) adoption of a standardized methodology for DANA data collection and reporting; and 3) development and implementation of standardized DANA training.

Incorporation of Potential Climate Change Impacts into Local Disaster Risk Management in Costa Rica

Tsuneki Hori et al. — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:30:37 PST

In recent years, Costa Rica has faced various natural hazards and experienced increasing economic loss from numerous small-scale local climate events. This growing trend of losses is triggered by, among other factors, global climate change. In order to meet the challenge of reducing local vulnerabilities, it is necessary to incorporate the potential impacts of climate change into DRM planning. The present study identifies opportunities and challenges for improving incorporation of climate change impacts into DRM planning at the local level in Costa Rica by applying a checklist to 17 municipalities. The study found overall unsatisfactory progress in DRM planning at the municipality level. However, results indicated that local governments’ experiences and small actions related to climate change, based on their own needs and taken independently of the national policy priorities, are a key element in improving DRM at the local level. This study also identifies four challenges to further improving local level DRM.

Putting People at the Center of Climate Change Adaptation Plans: A Vulnerability Approach

Andrew J. Rumbach et al. — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:30:35 PST

The majority of research and writing on climate change and planning focuses on mitigation, reducing emissions and climate change impacts over long time cycles. However, the realization that human settlements will see immediate and near-term impacts, regardless of emissions reductions, has given urgency to questions about how communities will adapt. We are interested in municipal level adaptation plans: “incipient plans” where implementation has either just begun or not even started, and evaluation and rethinking belong to the future. Our intention is to inform this process. We reviewed more than a dozen municipal and regional climate change and adaptation planning processes, and selected six to examine further. Our case selection includes plans from coastal and inland cities, both large and small, and all but one are from counties amongst the most vulnerable in the U.S. We found that while mitigation of green house gases (GHGs), which is important and necessary, was central to all plans, adaptation strategies were not considered to the same extent or left out completely. We argue that an adaptation strategy that uses a vulnerability approach can be the most effective way to assess climate risk because it puts people and communities at the center of the analysis; helps planners and policy makers to design adaptation strategies that will reduce suffering in local areas while making effective use of scarce resources; and enables better coordination among different elements of planning. To be efficient and effective, adaptation plans must be generated at different scales and must downscale climate information to a local level. Most importantly, the first step in adaptation planning must be to understand vulnerability and the full range of variables that contribute to it. We conclude by suggesting that cities must integrate climate action strategies into their long-range Comprehensive Plans to take full advantage of the targeting and coordination possibilities that a vulnerability approach offers.

A Systems View of Decision-Making for Risky Technologies: From Global to Local and Local to Global

Anneliese Poetz — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:30:31 PST

The recent disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power generation facility has caused concern on a global scale over the safety of nuclear power. In response to heightened risk perceptions caused by these crises, many stakeholders may find processes for voicing their concerns to be inadequate. For many years, an effective model for decision-making which includes public input has been needed, a process that meets the needs of diverse stakeholders in a democratic setting. Many studies conclude that stakeholder interactions occur within a complex system, but do not articulate details of this system. This study combined case study with grounded theory methodology and utilized situational analysis. Data were mainly comprised of 30 one-on-one interviews with stakeholders involved in the decision-making processes for the re-licensing of two nuclear power generation facilities in Ontario, Canada. The purpose of this paper is to present findings from this qualitative study which illuminate the complex interactions between global, national, and local systems, such as the effect of nuclear incidents on global and local risk perceptions. The paper concludes with several recommendations for organizations concerned with protecting public safety.

Emergency Plans: Are They Really Necessary? Five Steps to Better Response Operations

Lucien G. Canton — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:44 PDT

The author discusses the development and application of emergency plans, emphasizing the need for flexibility. Suggestions for improving the effectiveness of plans are provided.

A Newspaper Content Analysis of HIV/AIDS and Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Jennifer L. MacPherson et al. — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:42 PDT

This study sought to identify media links presented between food insecurity and the HIV pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa through description of commonly portrayed frames found in high visibility Western and African print media sources. An episodic sampling process during the summer of 2006 found articles that tied food security to the HIV pandemic. Content analysis employed a mixed methodology grounded in naturalistic inquiry. Included were interpretative thematic analyses of text and images along with a frequency content coding instrument as a means of triangulation. Several themes emerged during analysis of the sample, including a biomedical frame, war and competition imagery, economic threats, food insecurity as a contributing factor for HIV infection, and hopeful action. Differences noted within Western and African print media framing of food security within the HIV pandemic consisted of an overall Western portrayal that was less actionable and more hopeless in nature than African portrayals. The potential of integrating existing frames and working towards newer frames is discussed as a method to improve citizen-level action on global issues and further the agenda-setting process necessary for policy development.

Adoption of Hazard Adjustments by Large and Small Organizations: Who is Doing the Talking and Who is Doing the Walking?

Abdul-Akeem Sadiq — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:40 PDT

Environmental hazards pose a considerable and genuine threat to the survival of organizations. However, organizations can increase their likelihood of survival by adopting various hazard adjustments. Prior studies on hazard adjustments have found a positive relationship between the adoption of hazard adjustments and organization size. However, no study on hazard adjustments has grouped hazard adjustments into active and passive and studied the relationship between active and passive hazard adjustments and organization size. The author investigates whether large organizations adopt more active and passive hazard adjustments than small organizations, using data from a survey of 227 organizations in Memphis, Tennessee. The results show that large organizations adopt more active and passive hazard adjustments than small organizations and both large and small organizations engage in different types of hazard adjustments.

An Analysis of Authority Issues within National Response Framework ESF #6 – Mass Care, Housing and Human Services Policy

Steven L. Smith — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:38 PDT

This policy analysis reviews the shared authority provisions between the American Red Cross and FEMA in ESF-6 of the U.S. National Response Framework (NRF), which covers mass care, housing, and human services. The shared authority base in place prior to Hurricane Katrina contributed to confusion during the response in 2005. FEMA rewrote ESF-6 in 2008; the role of FEMA and the American Red Cross under this policy continues to be reviewed at the federal level. This study evaluates policy options related to ESF-6 authority issues using Patton and Sawicki's (1993) policy analysis framework.

U.S. Presidents and Their Roles in Emergency Management and Disaster Policy 1950-2009

Naim Kapucu et al. — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:35 PDT

This paper attempts both to rate the quality and breadth of presidential involvement in emergency management, as well as to examine the possible reasons for the differing quality. Using three major factors for evaluation, it is possible to review the presidential records from the second half of the twentieth century to today, and derive broad categorical assessments using a holistic methodology. The major factors are the ability and willingness to appropriately distinguish the needs and priorities of disaster management apart from civil defense needs and priorities, the selection of well-qualified disaster management leaders with a background in natural and accidental disasters, and the quality of implementation of programs including administrative execution, number and level of presidential disaster declarations, and timely presidential involvement in catastrophes. Using this framework, two presidents emerged as excellent, three as good, four as average, and two as poor. Interestingly, while some presidents learned from previous executive types of experiences, others did not. While some presidents learned from major catastrophes (focusing events) that occurred just before or during their administrations, others were hard-pressed simply to recover from especially disruptive or new disasters and failed to improve the system as a result. A consistent finding is that the performance of presidents in emergency management has had a growing effect on their overall reputations by the public and experts. Before 1950, presidential roles were extremely modest and expectations almost nonexistent. After Truman and through Regan, roles increased substantially and expectations were modest. From Clinton through Obama, the roles have continued to increase and expectations have become exceedingly high.

Country at a Crossroads: An Insight into How an Economic Crisis Led to Dramatic Policy Change

John W. Hogan et al. — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:33 PDT

In this paper, we try to understand the nature of the changes to Mexican macroeconomic policy in the early 1980s using a critical juncture framework. The framework argues that three elements—crisis, ideational change, and radical policy change—must be identified in order for us to be able to declare, with some certainty, whether an event constitutes a critical juncture. Utilizing this framework, we will ascertain whether the changes to Mexican macroeconomic policy constituted a clean break with the past or were a continuation of previously established policy pathways.

Information Sharing in Village Stability Operations: Field Experiences and Policy Considerations

Tyler M. Koziol et al. — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:30 PDT

This paper describes a bottom-up counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan known as Village Stability Operations, as well as some of the contributions information sharing strategies are making to its success. In a “population-centric” strategy, it is essential to understand the people and what is important to them in their world, not ours. In this environment, information about the population, also known as “white” data, can be mission critical, although it wasn’t treated as such at the beginning of the Afghan campaign. “White” information is not a panacea; it needs to be blended with enemy (“red”) information and government (“green”) information to form an integrated approach. The paper examines several projects that have been undertaken in Afghanistan, their successes and challenges, and how they have helped the Afghan population while supporting coalition objectives.

Resilience, Entropy, and Efficiency in Crisis Management: The January 12, 2010, Haiti Earthquake

Louise K. Comfort et al. — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 16:18:27 PDT

The transition from disaster to recovery represents a major challenge to decision makers who seek to build a stronger, sustainable future while they cope with losses and destruction from an extreme event. Decision makers encounter a dynamic environment in which they must balance the tensions between entropy and efficiency in their search for resilience as they seek to maintain sustainable operations in a region exposed to recurring risk. In communities that have experienced disaster, the initial response is a strong mobilization of resources and personnel focused on clear goals of saving lives, protecting property, and meeting immediate needs. The urgency of danger directs the priorities for action, and organizations and individuals voluntarily act cooperatively to meet immediate needs, representing a first step toward resilience. Yet, the resources and energy committed to a shared effort to meet immediate needs generated by the extreme event slowly give way to entropy, or the dissipation of attention, energy, and resources that leads to a consequent loss of efficiency in risk reduction. The deteriorating situation leads to new calls for efficiency to regain resilience. The evolving process represents a dynamic among resilience, entropy, and efficiency that shapes the community’s capacity to manage risk from exposure to recurring hazards. It is largely driven by interactions among organizations participating in disaster operations, their exchange of timely, valid information, and their capacity for learning and adaptation, as well as gaps in cognition and action.

We explore the tensions among resilience, entropy, and efficiency in an analysis of interactions among local, regional, national, and international organizations operating in response to the January 12, 2010, Haiti Earthquake. Three types of data are used to analyze patterns of interaction among the organizations: 1) content analysis of newspapers; 2) documentary reports by professional organizations; and 3) semistructured interviews with policy makers operating in Haiti. In analyzing the networks of organizations operating in disaster operations, we document the response system that emerged during the first three weeks following the earthquake, January 12–February 3, 2010. We conclude that timely intervention in information flow can be used to minimize entropy, increase efficiency, and strengthen resilience in a disaster-stricken society’s transition from response to recovery.

Assumptions Can Kill

Lucien G. Canton — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:07:55 PDT

Using a recent incident in Alameda, California as a case study, the author examines the role of assumptions in emergency planning and outcomes.

Climate Disaster Resilience of Dhaka City Corporation: An Empirical Assessment at Zone Level

Gulsan Ara Parvin et al. — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:07:49 PDT

Along with the threat of climate change and its related hazards, rapid urban growth is leading to unplanned urbanization, high population density and environmental degradation of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Already the severity of climate-related hazards, especially flooding, is increasing. It is predicted that among the coastal mega-cities Dhaka would be the most vulnerable to climate change. This research measures the existing level of climate disaster resilience of Dhaka City Corporation by assessing the problems and potentialities in different sectors. The Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) was calculated for 10 different zones of Dhaka City Corporation. CDRI analysis comprises five different dimensions (physical, social, economic, institutional and natural), 25 parameters and 125 variables (development issues). Findings show that besides location, the utility services, accessibility to roads, housing and land-use, health, social capital and environmental conditions are each playing a role in determining the resilience level of different zones. It is interesting to note that the planned residential areas have relatively higher levels of climate disaster resilience, while old parts of the city and densely populated low income areas have lower levels of resilience. Dhaka, being the primate city of the country, continuously faces numerous challenges and opportunities. It is expected that by utilizing CDRI results in policy formulation and development planning, these challenges could be minimized and opportunities enhanced, leading to a more resilient city in the future.

Assessment of an Emergency Disaster Response to Floods in Agadez, Niger

John A. Freeman et al. — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:07:46 PDT

The ubiquitous nature of disasters presents many challenges in providing effective emergency response to build community sustainability. Limited availability of resources, the need to coordinate and distribute relief aid, and the involvement of different organizations, especially at the international level, complicate policy and response efforts. The goal of this research is to model the effectiveness of emergency response provided by one sector, humanitarian organizations. This project looks at response to a flood in Agadez, Niger, and an adjacent rural community. Following the disaster, a non-governmental organization, ShelterBox, responded immediately, distributing tents, cooking utensils, and supplies to survivors. A questionnaire was conducted of 100 households that received such aid. Results show that such temporary disaster relief helped recipients feel safe, helped rebuild lives, and helped make families feel normal again. The tents and supplies had been put to various uses; many still being used as dwellings while others were stored for cooler seasons. Emergency response was particularly effective in rural areas, where supplies were utilized to the fullest extent. These baseline indicators will guide further research to determine the effectiveness of humanitarian aid under different disaster scenarios and in contrasting contexts, and hence lead to improved policies.

School District Partner Choice in Emergency Management Collaboration

Scott E. Robinson — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:07:43 PDT

Successful emergency planning and response requires the cooperation of a broad array of partners. The literature on collaboration and social networks provides conflicting predictions about how organizations choose partners. One tradition focuses on the powerful role of similarity (or homophily) as predicting partner choices. A contrasting tradition argues that rational organizations will choose partners both unlike themselves and unlike their other partners to ensure that each collaboration provides access to unique resources. This article starts with the question of how an organization whose primary responsibilities are not focused on emergency management chooses partners when they respond to and prepare for emergencies. Using a survey of school districts in Texas immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, the article assesses the priority of partner choice. The results indicate that school districts choose partners largely on the basis of strategic difference, though there is some evidence of homophily.

Opportunities and Challenges of Incorporating Climate Change Threats into Disaster Risk Management Planning: A Case Study in Costa Rica

Tsuneki Hori et al. — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:07:38 PDT

Disaster losses due to climate and weather related events are increasing worldwide. Risk associated with climate and weather related events will be exacerbated by climate change in the coming decades. The high frequency of climate and weather related disasters intensifies vulnerability in developing countries. Costa Rica has recently approved the national policy instruments (Act 8488, PNGR 2010–2015, and ENCC) and incorporated the context of climate change threats into DRM planning. This paper discusses challenges and opportunities for incorporating climate change threats into DRM planning at the national level. A “checklist,” developed by the authorities of Latin American and Caribbean countries, is applied as a case study in Costa Rica. Results of the study indicate that the national policy instruments did provide an opportunity for incorporating climate change threats into DRM planning, especially within the context of risk identification, monitoring, and evaluation. However, several gaps are also identified when doing so in practice.

What’s Your “Position” on Nuclear Power? An Exploration of Conflict in Stakeholder Participation for Decision-making about Risky Technologies

Anneliese Poetz — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:07:35 PDT

One of the exigent issues concerning stakeholder engagement in decision-making for nuclear power generation facilities is the manner in which conflict is acknowledged and managed. In order to manage conflict effectively, one must understand the full variability of positions on certain issues, and from perspectives of diverse stakeholders. Research to-date on risk perception and resultant conflict has been conducted almost exclusively from the perspective of the public. This paper utilizes grounded theory methodology combined with a case study approach to explore the decision-making processes for the re-licensing of two local nuclear power generation facilities; Pickering ‘A’ and Bruce ‘A’ from the perspective of the nuclear industry, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, government, Non-Governmental Organizations, scientists, and public. Situational analysis is a tool utilized to generate 7 positional maps which display the diversity of viewpoints on major contested issues such as environmental, technical, and financial risk, availability of information, and satisfaction with the process for stakeholder engagement. The paper concludes that conflict can be both negative and positive, and recommends the best way to reduce the potential for conflict is by actively engaging stakeholders in facilitated discussions with ground rules for conduct of all participants, and conducting discussions over the long-term and well before (and after) legislated public consultations take place. The results of this study provide a useful framework for future quantitative exploration of the issues illustrated in each of the 7 positional maps.